Monday, April 7, 2008

There is no correlation between the US $ and US interest rates

Some currency strategists attribute the weakness of the US $ to the low interest rates in the USA. This supposes that there is a correlation between the two. Data dating back to the seventies contradict this assumption.

Periods when there was a correlation(no correlation) are marked by a blue(red) trendline.
Out of a total of 441 months, 69% are in red.
There may well be a correlation since May 2005, but no conclusion can be drawn from this period in regards of more comprehensive historical data.

All this to say that the current weakness of the US dollar has more to do with the money supply.

copyright © 2008. All rights reserved.

No comments: