Friday, March 28, 2008

Commodities: the end of the bubble? Part 2

Commodities got a nasty hit lately: was it the sign of a top or of a "normal" correction?
The chart below shows that, in the past, tops of commodities were preceded by tops in precious metals.

While there may be signs of a slowing down in the uptrend of gold, there is no evidence yet of a downturn in precious metals. Therefore, the recent downturn in commodities looks to me more like a correction than a trend reversal. Should the trend in gold reverse, then one might expect the same in commodities some weeks or months later.

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