Monday, May 26, 2008

Technical long term sell signal in a bullish scenario

I apply different buy/sell methods depending on the long term market trend: bullish, bearish or consolidation.
I have been bullish since the last quarter of 2004. The market timing method I use in a bullish scenario has rendered a sell signal on the Dow Jones Ind. on May 6th. This signal has been confirmed on the Dow Jones Transport at the end of last week.
From a fundamental point of view, I explain the signal by the negative effect of a weak dollar on inflation and real growth. Given the high correlation between Wall Street and the world's stock markets, the message is a broad sell.
So still bullish, but in a profit taking mood ... even if I do not expect a major fall at this stage because, even though the Dow Jones Ind. has a high p/e of 85, it is close to the GNP valuation level.
Gold: after the April 8th sell signal, gold is offering a second chance for profit taking. From a fundamental point of view, this may sound contradictory in view of the falling dollar. However, as already shown previously, tops of gold tend to precede bottoms of the US $.

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