Thursday, January 24, 2008

The Fed does have some margin... (?)

According to the technical analysis theory, at the end of bull trends, stocks fall down on their own weight, i.e. falls do not need to be accompanied by big volumes. Recent falls were made, on the contrary, on huge (historically high) volumes: foreigners seem to prefer to buy US assets than to damp their dollars (for now).

The long term bullish trend can withstand a level of 10500 for the Dow Jones Ind. index (DJI):












The price/earnings ratio of the DJI is now close to 48 which is high.
A fall would break the neck to rising commodities prices and inflation.
If this scenario happens, the crisis will not be the"subprime mortgage" crisis, but the "dollar" crisis.

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